Everyone outside sees it; now, everyone inside the country has to see it! Don't fool yourself! Não te deixes enganar! Não te deixes passar por parvo!
(...) The Greek government played it relatively straight but Portugal’s crisis management has been, and remains, appalling.
José Sócrates, prime minister, has chosen to delay applying for a financial rescue package until the last minute. His announcement last week was a tragi-comic highlight of the crisis. With the country on the brink of financial extinction, he gloated on national television that he had secured a better deal than Ireland and Greece. In addition, he claimed the agreement would not cause much pain. When the details emerged a few days later, we could see that none of this was true. The package contains savage spending cuts, freezes in public sector wages and pensions, tax rises and a forecast of two years’ deep recession.
You cannot run a monetary union with the likes of Mr Sócrates, or with finance ministers who spread rumours about a break-up. Europe’s political elites are afraid to tell a truth that economic historians have known forever: that a monetary union without a political union is simply not viable. This is not a debt crisis. This is a political crisis. The eurozone will soon face the choice between an unimaginable step forward to political union or an equally unimaginable step back. We know Mr Schäuble has contemplated, and rejected, the latter. We also know that he prefers the former. It is time to say so.
Full article here (you have to register or sign in to read the article).
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
5.04.2011
Sócrates, o plano da troika e o meu futuro
Depois de ouvir a apresentaçao do PM demissionário resolvi tomar as seguintes decisões:
- vou comprar um carro novo;
- vou comprar roupa nova;
- vou marcar umas férias de 1 mês para os EUA;
- vou jantar fora hoje, amanhã e depois.
...ou não.
Todos nós sabemos que o lado brilhante da lua esconde um lado menos iluminado. Hoje e amanhã iremos começar a conhecer o lado que menos interessa ao PM.
Mas, mais uma vez, Sócrates quis fazer o que melhor sabe: associar a valoração daquilo que é positivo à sua imagem, deixando o negativo para colar na fronte de outrém. Muita manipulação quando haveria de existir muita responsabilidade.
O PM poderá renascer num país em que toda a gente é cega; num país de gente sábia definharia perante o escrutínio das suas políticas e das suas práticas.
- vou comprar um carro novo;
- vou comprar roupa nova;
- vou marcar umas férias de 1 mês para os EUA;
- vou jantar fora hoje, amanhã e depois.
...ou não.
Todos nós sabemos que o lado brilhante da lua esconde um lado menos iluminado. Hoje e amanhã iremos começar a conhecer o lado que menos interessa ao PM.
Mas, mais uma vez, Sócrates quis fazer o que melhor sabe: associar a valoração daquilo que é positivo à sua imagem, deixando o negativo para colar na fronte de outrém. Muita manipulação quando haveria de existir muita responsabilidade.
O PM poderá renascer num país em que toda a gente é cega; num país de gente sábia definharia perante o escrutínio das suas políticas e das suas práticas.
Portugal e o valor do bailout: mais 20 euros
No seguimento do texto que escrevi, deixo-vos com a análise de várias fontes, num trabalho feito por Neil Hume do Financial Times.
The relatively large size of the package is probably intended chiefly to generate a substantial buffer to ensure that programme can withstand potentially adverse developments.
Pois...
The relatively large size of the package is probably intended chiefly to generate a substantial buffer to ensure that programme can withstand potentially adverse developments.
Pois...
5.03.2011
Portugal, Irlanda, Governo Português e 20 euros
Conhecida a premissa do PM demissionário José Sócrates, Portugal estava a trilhar um caminho perfeitamente normal de consolidação das finanças públicas e o chumbo do PEC IV veio impedir que esse movimento continuasse.
Notícia de hoje: Valor total do apoio é de 78 mil milhões de euros
Bem, se estava tudo a correr bem (quem não se lembra do superavit?) porque motivo o estado Português precisará de um montantesuperior quase igual àquele que foi emprestado à Irlanda (85 mil milhões de euros), que teve um tsunami de perdas no seu sistema financeiro e uma bolha imobiliária enorme?
Portugal teve dois casos (BPN e BPP) de gravidade média no que se refere à injecção de capitais públicos para prevenir situações mais gravosas. Para além disso, quais foram os outros factos anormais?
Portanto, como é possível que o valor do financiamento a Portugal seja de 78 mil milhões de euros se estava tudo bem?
Vejamos alguns dados comparativos da Irlanda e Portugal para percebermos as características dos dois países (info) e as possíveis relações com a dimensão das suas economias:
Notícia de hoje: Valor total do apoio é de 78 mil milhões de euros
Bem, se estava tudo a correr bem (quem não se lembra do superavit?) porque motivo o estado Português precisará de um montante
Portugal teve dois casos (BPN e BPP) de gravidade média no que se refere à injecção de capitais públicos para prevenir situações mais gravosas. Para além disso, quais foram os outros factos anormais?
Portanto, como é possível que o valor do financiamento a Portugal seja de 78 mil milhões de euros se estava tudo bem?
Vejamos alguns dados comparativos da Irlanda e Portugal para percebermos as características dos dois países (info) e as possíveis relações com a dimensão das suas economias:
Irlanda
Força de trabalho: 2.15 milhões (2010)
PIB: 208.3 mil milhões de dólares (2010)
PIB per capita: 37600 dólares (2010)
Força de trabalho: 2.15 milhões (2010)
PIB: 208.3 mil milhões de dólares (2010)
PIB per capita: 37600 dólares (2010)
Portugal
Força de trabalho: 5.57 milhões (2010)
Força de trabalho: 5.57 milhões (2010)
PIB: 223.7 mil milhões de dólares (2010)
PIB per capita: 23000 dólares (2010)
Apesar da Irlanda ter menos de metade da força de trabalho de Portugal, apresenta um PIB apenas inferior em 15 mil milhões. O seu PIB per capita é, por isso, muito superior ao Português, em quase 14 mil $ por habitante.
Portanto, mais uma vez, se a Irlanda, assolada por perdas terríveis no sistema financeiro e uma bolha imobiliário, teve um financiamento de cerca de 85 mil milhões de euros, como é possível que o estado Português, que apenas teve dois casos relevantes e não teve nenhuma crise imobiliária, tenha que ser financiado com 78 mil milhões?
Isto, obviamente, no contexto da premissa do governo. Estava mesmo tudo bem?
Quem é que querem enganar? Mais importante, quem é que ainda se quer deixar enganar? Alguém?
Quem é que querem enganar? Mais importante, quem é que ainda se quer deixar enganar? Alguém?
Portugal must grow its way out of trouble by Pedro Passos Coelho
Para aqueles que não têm registo no FT, transcrevo para aqui o texto.
On June 5, Portugal holds parliamentary elections that will shape its future for years to come. If the country is to recover from its current financial crisis, these elections will have to return a government that can deliver reform and rebuild market confidence.
Recent events highlight just how crucial the need for change has become. On April 6, Portugal was forced to seek an estimated €80bn in financial aid from the European Union. This was the culmination of a long-term loss of market confidence in the government’s ability to improve external competitiveness, restore public and banking sector creditworthiness and get the economy growing again.
Turning this situation around is difficult but not impossible, if Portugal focuses its energy on growth. The country’s problems have built up over a number of years as it spent too much, and earned too little, running annual current account and budget deficits often close to 10 per cent of gross domestic product. The crucial difference with other eurozone countries is that macroeconomic imbalances were underpinned by a decade of meagre growth. The disappearance of private savings created a vicious circle between public and external debt.
Reducing costs through an austerity programme is urgently necessary. The most effective, and fairest, way to achieve this is through a leaner and more efficient public sector. Portugal needs to restructure general government, state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships and concessions that do not provide value for money and are not economically productive. The three previous government austerity packages (not implemented as agreed) and the fourth (unanimously rejected by parliament) were focused too much on austerity for ordinary citizens, rather than reducing the size of the state.
Raising revenues is also critical, although only in the context of enabling growth. A simple example illustrates this point. Two weeks ago Portugal released first-quarter budget figures, which showed a narrowing deficit that was mostly due to earlier tax rises. Raising the tax take on the existing revenue base – rather than seeing tax income grow as a function of GDP growth – is not a sustainable strategy in the long term.
Which leads us back to growth. Fiscal consolidation, while necessary, is not enough to deliver long-term budget stability and debt reduction. In the medium to long term, economic growth is the only solution to Portugal’s fiscal problems.
The financial assistance package being negotiated with the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank is a vital, if depressing, step. Portugal’s cost of borrowing, which stood at over 8 per cent on five-year bonds the day before the vote on the latest austerity package, and has since risen to more than 11 per cent, was unsustainable. The assistance package is necessary to provide the liquidity the country needs to meet short-term funding requirements.
However, it is only a short-term measure that buys some time. The money is still owed, and must be paid back. This is why growth is all. It will be achieved by lowering costs in the short-run and bringing about productivity gains in the long-run; and it must be more export-driven. This means strengthening existing export markets and expanding to new ones, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The country needs a productivity boost from lower labour and other regulated costs, such as energy, that have a direct impact on the tradable sector; and structural reform has to lead to a more qualified labour force, greater accountability and effective conflict resolution.
Underlying all of this is the matter of transparency. Markets rely on confidence and certainty, and one reason investors have been pricing in a bail-out for Portugal since 2010 has been the lack of both in budget figures. These fears have been borne out with the budget deficit twice revised upwards in recent months.
The next government has to be committed to complete transparency on the real budgetary and contingent debt situation. This is essential to ensure effective fiscal consolidation and guarantee that Portugal will not remain reliant on financial assistance from abroad. The next prime minister will need to have the determination to bring about change and the willingness to reach out across ideological divides that will allow Portugal to deliver growth while honouring its international debt commitments.
Texto: Pedro Passos Coelho, líder do PSD
Jornal: Financial Times
02/05/2011
On June 5, Portugal holds parliamentary elections that will shape its future for years to come. If the country is to recover from its current financial crisis, these elections will have to return a government that can deliver reform and rebuild market confidence.
Recent events highlight just how crucial the need for change has become. On April 6, Portugal was forced to seek an estimated €80bn in financial aid from the European Union. This was the culmination of a long-term loss of market confidence in the government’s ability to improve external competitiveness, restore public and banking sector creditworthiness and get the economy growing again.
Turning this situation around is difficult but not impossible, if Portugal focuses its energy on growth. The country’s problems have built up over a number of years as it spent too much, and earned too little, running annual current account and budget deficits often close to 10 per cent of gross domestic product. The crucial difference with other eurozone countries is that macroeconomic imbalances were underpinned by a decade of meagre growth. The disappearance of private savings created a vicious circle between public and external debt.
Reducing costs through an austerity programme is urgently necessary. The most effective, and fairest, way to achieve this is through a leaner and more efficient public sector. Portugal needs to restructure general government, state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships and concessions that do not provide value for money and are not economically productive. The three previous government austerity packages (not implemented as agreed) and the fourth (unanimously rejected by parliament) were focused too much on austerity for ordinary citizens, rather than reducing the size of the state.
Raising revenues is also critical, although only in the context of enabling growth. A simple example illustrates this point. Two weeks ago Portugal released first-quarter budget figures, which showed a narrowing deficit that was mostly due to earlier tax rises. Raising the tax take on the existing revenue base – rather than seeing tax income grow as a function of GDP growth – is not a sustainable strategy in the long term.
Which leads us back to growth. Fiscal consolidation, while necessary, is not enough to deliver long-term budget stability and debt reduction. In the medium to long term, economic growth is the only solution to Portugal’s fiscal problems.
The financial assistance package being negotiated with the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank is a vital, if depressing, step. Portugal’s cost of borrowing, which stood at over 8 per cent on five-year bonds the day before the vote on the latest austerity package, and has since risen to more than 11 per cent, was unsustainable. The assistance package is necessary to provide the liquidity the country needs to meet short-term funding requirements.
However, it is only a short-term measure that buys some time. The money is still owed, and must be paid back. This is why growth is all. It will be achieved by lowering costs in the short-run and bringing about productivity gains in the long-run; and it must be more export-driven. This means strengthening existing export markets and expanding to new ones, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The country needs a productivity boost from lower labour and other regulated costs, such as energy, that have a direct impact on the tradable sector; and structural reform has to lead to a more qualified labour force, greater accountability and effective conflict resolution.
Underlying all of this is the matter of transparency. Markets rely on confidence and certainty, and one reason investors have been pricing in a bail-out for Portugal since 2010 has been the lack of both in budget figures. These fears have been borne out with the budget deficit twice revised upwards in recent months.
The next government has to be committed to complete transparency on the real budgetary and contingent debt situation. This is essential to ensure effective fiscal consolidation and guarantee that Portugal will not remain reliant on financial assistance from abroad. The next prime minister will need to have the determination to bring about change and the willingness to reach out across ideological divides that will allow Portugal to deliver growth while honouring its international debt commitments.
Texto: Pedro Passos Coelho, líder do PSD
Jornal: Financial Times
02/05/2011
4.11.2011
World Economic Outlook April 2011 - some notes on Portugal
Portugal will be the country with:
- the LOWEST projection of GDP growth for 2012 (-0.5%) and only worse (-1.5%) than Greece (-3%) in 2011. Compare it with Ireland's projection of growth of 0.5% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2012;
- the SECOND WORST Account Balance as percentage of GDP, -8.7% in 2011 and -8.5 in 2012, only behind Cyprus with –8.9 in 2011 and –8.7 in 2012. Compare it with Ireland's projection of 0.2% and 0.6% respectively;
- the SIXTH HIGHEST unemployment rate projection for 2011 with 11.9 and 12.4 in 2012; In the same period is expected that Ireland will decrease its unemployment rate from 14.5% to 13%;
Taken from page 67 of the WEO by IMF.
Important note in page 178:
Portugal: 2010 data are preliminary. For 2011 and beyond, the IMF staff incorporates all the approved fiscal measures (thus excluding the measures proposed in March 2011, which were rejected by Parliament). The fiscal numbers also incorporate the impact of the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
Now, projections of real GDP growth for 2016
- Portugal is projected to have the LOWEST GROWTH with 1.2%, the same as Japan. Compare with Greece's 2.9% and Ireland's 3.4%.
Taken from page 182 of the same document.
- the LOWEST projection of GDP growth for 2012 (-0.5%) and only worse (-1.5%) than Greece (-3%) in 2011. Compare it with Ireland's projection of growth of 0.5% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2012;
- the SECOND WORST Account Balance as percentage of GDP, -8.7% in 2011 and -8.5 in 2012, only behind Cyprus with –8.9 in 2011 and –8.7 in 2012. Compare it with Ireland's projection of 0.2% and 0.6% respectively;
- the SIXTH HIGHEST unemployment rate projection for 2011 with 11.9 and 12.4 in 2012; In the same period is expected that Ireland will decrease its unemployment rate from 14.5% to 13%;
Important note in page 178:
Portugal: 2010 data are preliminary. For 2011 and beyond, the IMF staff incorporates all the approved fiscal measures (thus excluding the measures proposed in March 2011, which were rejected by Parliament). The fiscal numbers also incorporate the impact of the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
Now, projections of real GDP growth for 2016
- Portugal is projected to have the LOWEST GROWTH with 1.2%, the same as Japan. Compare with Greece's 2.9% and Ireland's 3.4%.
Taken from page 182 of the same document.
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